Today, 10:33 AM
There have certainly been days where the "prices paid" component of the ISM Manufacturing data has been responsible for sending bond yields higher. T...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 3:48 PM
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness
Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors rea...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 10:34 AM
Right out of the gate in the overnight session, stocks were weaker and bonds were stronger in a risk-off move that has become all too familiar for fin...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:14 PM
What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation?
It was one thing when bonds were only modestly s...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 9:34 AM
Inflation, via this morning's PCE price index, came in slightly hotter than expected, but bonds are rallying in response. There are a few ways to appr...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 4:28 PM
Uneventful Drift Ahead of Friday's Monthly PCE Data
For the 3rd day in a row, the bond market logged a rathe...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 8:58 AM
If you're just joining us, here's a brief history of the last few decades as it concerns inflation and interest rates. Inflation was an overblown conc...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 5:27 PM
Narrow Trading, Weaker Drift; MBS Live Threads Intro
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but found a bit...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 11:37 AM
The first 3 days of this week have all generally seen yields at the highest levels in a month (or perhaps in "at least 28 days" considering Feb's day ...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 4:25 PM
Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains
In absolute terms, it was a moderately active day for bonds as ...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 10:25 AM
Bonds came into the domestic session in weaker territory after steady selling in Europe. The resulting yields were ultimately a few bps higher than t...
Mon, Mar 24 2025, 3:59 PM
Yields Pushing Range Boundaries After Tariff Updates and Econ Data
Bonds lost ground over the weekend as new...
Mon, Mar 24 2025, 12:26 PM
Bonds are starting the week in weaker shape. If you had to reduce that movement to one motivation, it would be the "risk-on" vibes following more news...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 4:45 PM
Small Scale Weakness Leaves Bigger Picture Unchanged
Bonds began the day in stronger territory after tracing...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 11:49 AM
Heading into this week's Fed announcement, we noted the consolidation pattern in bonds (the convergence of intraday highs and lows in an increasingly ...
Thu, Mar 20 2025, 5:06 PM
Uneventful Trading Day, But That's a Win
There's not much to say about today's trading session. MBS and Tre...
Thu, Mar 20 2025, 11:07 AM
The eternal disclaimer: we should never flat-out expect a particular correlation between stocks and bonds, with limited exceptions. Yesterday's Fed an...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 4:21 PM
Post-Fed Rally is "Nice" But Not Quite Exciting
In a small vacuum, today's Fed announcement had a noticeably...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recen...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 12:34 PM
Today's only big ticket calendar event is the Fed announcement, but that is more like 3 separate events over the course of roughly 2 hours. The announ...
Tue, Mar 18 2025, 3:37 PM
Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day
4 out of the year's 8 Fed announcements include an updated dot plot ...
Tue, Mar 18 2025, 11:37 AM
Recall 2 weeks ago that news of the incoming German Chancellor's ambitions to massively increase debt/spending led to the end of the bond rally in the...
Mon, Mar 17 2025, 4:12 PM
Mixed Reaction to Retail Sales Makes For a Boring Monday
Despite coming in much weaker than expected, Retail...
Mon, Mar 17 2025, 11:57 AM
After improving modestly in the overnight session, bonds contended with the Retail Sales data at 8:30am ET. At first glance, it should have been help...
Fri, Mar 14 2025, 6:22 PM
Uneventful Friday, Even if Slightly Weaker
Friday's trading session was the most uneventful of the week. It...
Fri, Mar 14 2025, 9:29 AM
It's been an on-again, off-again week for bonds and several of their trading motivations. Economic data has played its part at times, but not in any ...
Thu, Mar 13 2025, 4:25 PM
Stocks Save Bonds From Modest Losses
You won't always be able to count on the market dynamics we've seen ove...
Thu, Mar 13 2025, 10:40 AM
Seemingly overnight (i.e. over the past 30 days when it comes to markets reacting to economic data), the CPI and PPI inflation numbers that normally i...
Wed, Mar 12 2025, 4:09 PM
Why Aren't Bonds Happier About CPI?
For the 2nd month in a row, the market's reaction to a CPI/PPI report en...
Wed, Mar 12 2025, 11:48 AM
Today's CPI came in lower than expected. That would normally help bonds rally, but they didn't seem too eager to do that. One explanation is that the ...
Tue, Mar 11 2025, 3:56 PM
Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI
February 19th through March 3rd marked an exceptionally directional ral...
Tue, Mar 11 2025, 12:52 PM
Bonds were initially stronger at the start of overnight trading in Asia, but began selling off at a fairly steady clip almost immediately. By the sta...
Mon, Mar 10 2025, 3:44 PM
More Help From Stocks, But More Reluctance From Bonds
Up until just after 3pm ET, the stock market was on pa...
Mon, Mar 10 2025, 10:27 AM
Over the weekend, Trump was asked if he was expecting a recession this year. He replied that although he hates to predict such things, "there is a per...
Fri, Mar 7 2025, 4:03 PM
Bonds Give Up AM Gains After Powell Speech
Bonds made it through the jobs report in good shape with modest g...
Fri, Mar 7 2025, 10:20 AM
Today's jobs report was a mixed bag with the most important number also being the most boring. Headline job creation came in at 151k vs 160k, which i...
Thu, Mar 6 2025, 4:07 PM
Decent Recovery as Sentiment Swoons Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds have made it to Friday's jobs report without ...
Thu, Mar 6 2025, 11:40 AM
There are a few moving pieces to the bond market narrative on Thursday. The general backdrop consists of yield curve steepening (fancy words that mea...
Wed, Mar 5 2025, 3:47 PM
2nd Straight Day of Losses. Blame Data or Stocks?
We already saw the end of the bond market's 9 day winning ...
Wed, Mar 5 2025, 12:10 PM
Wednesday marks the return of market-moving economic data after Tuesday's lull. ADP Employment was up first and it came out much weaker than expected...
Tue, Mar 4 2025, 4:19 PM
Winning Streak Finally Ends, But it Could Have Been Worse
Take yesterday out of the equation and today's clo...
Tue, Mar 4 2025, 11:26 AM
While much of the recent improvement in the bond market can be tied to various economic reports, there's been more than a normal amount of improvement...
Mon, Mar 3 2025, 4:03 PM
Bonds Start Week Off With a Bang
After a weaker overnight session, bonds bounced back swiftly after this mor...
Mon, Mar 3 2025, 12:07 PM
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory with most of the losses seen right at the start of the overnight session in Asia. With it being th...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 4:16 PM
Bonds End The Week and The Month at Best Levels
Both MBS and Treasuries were easily at their best levels of ...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 12:06 PM
It's no secret that we don't view the PCE inflation data as being anywhere remotely as big of a market mover as CPI. Today's trading is adding anothe...
Thu, Feb 27 2025, 4:14 PM
Trying to Shake Off Overnight Weakness After Mixed Bag of Data
Bonds came into the domestic session at sligh...
Thu, Feb 27 2025, 12:30 PM
As of yesterday afternoon, bonds could seemingly do no wrong this week. Every opportunity for traders to circle the wagons and push back against the ...
Wed, Feb 26 2025, 4:28 PM
Bonds Can Seemingly Do No Wrong
Another day, another example of bonds ignoring the potentially negative cues...
Wed, Feb 26 2025, 12:01 PM
While the economic calendar may look a little busy today, there are, once again, no big ticket market movers in play. The last time data had an impac...
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